宏观经济回暖受阻，稳增长项目落实不足以及房地产各项指标全线回落造成极大的影响。时间又来到月下旬，在行业内外资金紧张的背景下再次面临阶段性的回款需求；然期钢以利空为主，杭州无缝钢管终端需求依然偏弱，本周国内钢价又将如何运行？笔者提醒留意以下几个方面的变化。轰轰烈烈的稳增长措施，并没有获得预期的效果，7月固投、房地产开发投资、商品房销售等于钢铁需求相关的经济实体回落。虽然四川等多地再次出台新的微刺激措施，然有项目无资金的尴尬一时也无法解决；当前高温多雨气候还在延续，继续影响户外重大工程项目进展，因此短期内终端钢材需求改善的可能性不大。
The macroeconomic recovery is hindered, the implementation of stable growth projects is inadequate, and all indicators of real estate have fallen back. The time has come to the end of the month, and the demand for repayment is again facing a phased demand under the background of the shortage of funds both inside and outside the industry. However, the demand for seamless steel pipe terminals in Hangzhou is still weak, and how will the domestic steel price run this week? The author reminds us of the following changes. The vigorous and steady growth measures did not achieve the desired results. In July, solid investment, real estate development investment and commercial housing sales equaled the decline of economic entities related to steel demand. Although new micro-stimulus measures have been introduced again in Sichuan and other places, the embarrassment of having projects or without funds can not be solved for a while; the current high temperature and rainy climate is still continuing, which continues to affect the progress of major outdoor projects, so it is unlikely that the demand for terminal steel will improve in the short term.
当前现货钢价与出厂价继续倒挂，极大的影响了钢贸商订货的积极性。杭州无缝钢管厂为了吸引订单，继续下调出厂价缓解倒挂矛盾的可能性较大；因此对铁矿石等原料的价格打压还将持续。不过进口矿库存高位回落、海外矿山有挺价意愿，因此铁矿石市场有一定利好；且钢坯价格创新低、焦炭价格跌价受到底部阻力。如此来看，原材料市场将表现为钢厂极力压价、原料商底部坚挺的对垒局面，预计窄幅震荡调整为主。钢铁行业内部资金压力依旧明显，且时间又来到月底，商家面临向钢厂打款压力，更为特殊的是，下月就是传统的“金九”旺季行情，市场商家在普遍低库存的情况下，可能会出现一定的备货操作，资金需求更大，压力显而易见。因此，近期可能存在商家主动降价套现的操作带动钢价下行。经济回暖节奏被打断，期待已久的稳增长措施效果不明显，较大的影响市场对后期政策市的期待；另外长期的出货不畅、杭州无缝钢管市场持续放量下跌，利空现货市场士气。总体来看，当前现货商家心态疲软，对后市信心持续降低，或将继续影响后期市场氛围。
The current spot steel price and factory price continue to hang upside down, greatly affecting the enthusiasm of steel traders to order. In order to attract orders, Hangzhou Seamless Steel Tube Plant will continue to reduce the ex-factory price to alleviate the inverted contradiction. Therefore, the price of iron ore and other raw materials will continue to be depressed. However, due to the high inventory of imported mines and the willingness of overseas mines to make a bid, the iron ore market has a certain advantage; moreover, the slab price is innovative low, and the price of coke is subject to bottom resistance. In this way, the raw material market will be characterized by steel mills pressing down prices, raw material merchants at the bottom of a strong rivalry situation, is expected to adjust mainly by narrow shocks. The internal capital pressure in the steel industry is still obvious, and the time is coming to the end of the month. Businessmen are facing the pressure of paying money to the steel mill. More specifically, next month is the traditional "Golden Ninth" peak season market. Market businessmen may have a certain backup operation under the general low inventory situation. The demand for capital is greater, and the pressure is obvious. Therefore, in the near future, there may be the operation of active price reduction arbitrage to drive down steel prices. The economic recovery rhythm was interrupted, and the long-awaited measures of steady growth had no obvious effect, which greatly affected the market's expectations of the later policy market. In addition, the long-term poor shipment, the continuous decline of the seamless steel pipe market in Hangzhou, and the negative spot market morale. Generally speaking, the current weak mentality of spot merchants will continue to reduce confidence in the future market, or will continue to affect the later market climate.
总的来说，经济回暖受阻，钢铁需求释放预期被压制，短期内改善的可能性不大；而且上周期钢的持续回落带动商家信心转弱，钢价在连续盘整之后出现了全线下行的趋势，在短期无重大环境改善的前提下，市场会整体呈现易跌难涨格局；加上月底资金压力进一步体现，钢坯等原料继续回落，成本支撑不足，因此，笔者认为，本周杭州无缝钢管还将延续弱跌走势，且跌势有放大的可能。
Generally speaking, the economic recovery is hindered, the expected release of steel demand is suppressed, and there is little possibility of improvement in the short term; moreover, the sustained decline of steel last week has led to a weakening of business confidence, and steel prices have a downward trend after continuous consolidation. Without significant environmental improvement in the short term, the market as a whole will show a pattern of easy to fall and difficult to rise; in addition, the financial pressure at the end of the month will be further increased. Reflecting that raw materials such as billets continue to fall, the cost support is insufficient, therefore, the author believes that this week, Hangzhou seamless steel pipe will continue to decline weakly, and the decline may be amplified.
